Archive for category: Fundamental Analysis Articles

Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) measures the amount of jobs gained in the U.S. during the previous month that aren’t farm related. It is typically released on the first Friday of the new month, and also includes the Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, and the Participation Rate. While all of those releases can have an impact, NFP is the main driver of market movement and is often times the single most-watched economic event that is released on a monthly basis.

Unlike men, not all economic news events are created equal. Some events create a lot of hysteria and knee-jerk reactions, whereas others barely cause a blip on the radar. The ubiquitous Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report out of the U.S. is an example of the former.

So much attention is paid to the NFP report that pundits from across the financial blogosphere attempt to predict its eventuality and impact across a variety of financial instruments.

The large reaction is due in part to the Dual Mandate of the Federal Open Market Committee of maximum employment and stable prices. The “maximum employment” part of that mandate means that the Fed looks at NFP to help determine what interest rates will be in the future which has an outsized impact on the health of the economy. If job growth is strong, the Fed would typically look to raise interest rates assuming inflation is in check, and vice versa if job growth is weak. However, simply determining if NFP is weak or strong is another matter altogether due to expectations.

Consensus
The consensus expectation for NFP plays a large role in how the markets react to the data, with the median expectation of a group of professional analysts serving as the decision point. For instance, if consensus is 200k, and the number comes out at 205k, there may not be too much reaction to that figure as it ended up being almost exactly what the market anticipated. The further away from the consensus, though, the more significant the reaction.

Two Ways to Trade NFP

Before the release:
If you place a trade before the figure is revealed, you are using your skills of deductive reasoning to predict which way the market will go before it actually does. Risk management is vital to using this type of strategy as an unexpected figure can create gaps in the market that could theoretically jump right over any risk-minimizing stops you have in place. Therefore, it is wise to give whatever instrument you choose to trade wide breadth to move and oscillate to give yourself a better chance. Most of the central banks around the world would like inflation to grow at an annual basis of around 2% to 3%.

After the release:
Trading after the release is a little more cautious, but also comes with its own set of risks. The initial knee-jerk reaction to the NFP headline isn’t always the “end-all, be-all” of market movement for the day. It has been well documented that markets can mimic a V-shape post NFP, where the spike goes in one direction then reverses in the minutes or hours afterward.

Economic indicators, or economic releases, are vital components to consider when making trading decisions. While some releases like Employment data or Retail Sales gives us a snapshot of an economy’s strength or weakness, some are a bit more subtle in their ways and can actually serve as a leading supposition of what’s to come for the main releases. In the spirit of trying to predict how the more important indicators will fare, here are some leading economic indicators that could give you a clue of how they will turn out.

Consumer and Business Surveys
When looking at economic releases, we have to realize that everything is ultimately related to the habits and actions of consumers: Retail Sales is a direct measure of how much consumers purchase; Gross Domestic Product is a direct measure of the capital spent by businesses and consumers; Employment is directly driven by demand to make product that is purchased by consumers; the list goes on. Taking that knowledge in effect means that it is incredibly helpful to have a measure of the optimism or pessimism of consumers, and surveys deliver that to us. It is imperative to be cautious when trying to assess the impact of the surveys because they have a different time reference than the more vital reports.

Survey results are usually reported about a week or two after the surveys are conducted whereas a report like Retail Sales can be reported anywhere from two to six weeks after the month end. Therefore matching the timeframes for the various reports is an absolute necessity.

Purchasing Manager Indices
There are a variety of PMI reports that get released by a few institutions (ISM and Markit chief among them), and all have varying degrees of importance; however, among them all, the “flash,” or “preliminary,” releases are the most telling. The reasoning behind that importance is directly related to their timing. The flash reports are typically released mid-month or slightly after to measure how the month has been going so far according to purchasing and supply executives. The higher above 50 those readings are, the better the month is shaping up for them as they are showing growth. Conversely, if the figure is below 50, then that represents a majority of negative responses and could signal a pullback in that nation’s economy.

Vehicle Sales
Government is slow to release their official figures due to their desire to be accurate and probably a few bureaucratic reasons, but businesses tend to be a little more expedient. For that reason, Vehicle Sales for the previous month are reported almost as soon as the month ends while the government figures are released much later. The theory is that if vehicle sales are strong then, most likely, other forms of consumerism will also be strong.

These are just a couple of the leading economic indicators you can use to help yourself get a leg up on the competition, and the more you watch them, the more comfortable you can become in utilizing their knowledge.

Earlier, we said that price action should theoretically reflect all available market information. Unfortunately for us forex traders, it isn’t that simple.

The forex markets do not simply reflect all of the information out there because traders will all just act the same way. Of course, that isn’t how things work.

This is why sentiment analysis is important. Each trader has his or her own opinion of why the market is acting the way it does and whether to trade in the same direction of the market or against it.

The market is just like Facebook – it’s a complex network made up of individuals who want to spam our news feeds.

Kidding aside, the market basically represents what all traders – you, Warren Buffet, or Celine from the donut shop – feel about the market.

Each trader’s thoughts and opinions, which are expressed through whatever position they take, helps form the overall sentiment of the market regardless of what information is out there.

The problem is that as retail traders, no matter how strongly you feel about a certain trade, you can’t move the forex markets in your favor.

Even if you truly believe that the dollar is going to go up, but everyone else is bearish on it, there’s nothing much you can do about it (unless you’re one of the GSs – George Soros or Goldman Sachs!).

As a trader, you have to take all this into consideration. You need to perform sentiment analysis.

It’s up to you to gauge how the market is feeling, whether it is bullish or bearish.

If you choose to simply ignore market sentiment, that’s your choice. But hey, we’re telling you now, it’s your loss!

Sentiment analysis is often used as a contrarian indicator.

There are a couple of ideas why this is.

One idea behind this is if EVERYONE (or almost everyone) shares the SAME sentiment, then it’s time to go hipster and trade against the popular sentiment.

For example, if everyone and their mamas are bullish EUR/USD, then it might be time to go short.

Why? Unfortunately, you’ll have to go further down the School to find out! Ha!

Another idea is that most retail forex traders (unfortunately) suck. Depending on where you find statistics, between 70-80% of retail traders lose money.

So if you know that these all these unprofitable traders who are usually wrong are all currently long EUR/USD….well, theeeeeen. 🤔

It might be a good idea to do the opposite of what they do!

Being able to gauge market sentiment aka sentiment analysis can be an important tool in your toolbox.

Later on in school, we’ll teach you how to analyze market sentiment and use it to your advantage, like Jedi mind tricks.

The opening of the Tokyo session at 12:00 am GMT marks the start of currency trading in Asia.

You should take note that the Tokyo session is sometimes referred to as the Asian session. 

One thing worth noting is that Japan is the third-largest forex trading center in the world.

This shouldn’t be too surprising since the yen is the third most traded currency, partaking in 16.8% of all forex transactions.

Overall, around 20% of all forex trading volume takes place during the Asian session.

It’s not all coming from just Tokyo though. There are other major financial centers in Asia such as Singapore and Hong Kong.

What’s interesting is that nowadays, more forex trading volume comes out of Singapore and Hong Kong than Tokyo.

Both Singapore and Hong Kong comprised 7.6% of overall volume each, while Japan had 4.5%.