Daily analysis 14 NOVEMBER 2022

• Indices from Asia-Pacific traded mostly lower today. Nikkei dropped 1%, S&P/ASX 200 moved 0.2% lower, Kospi traded 0.4% down and Nifty traded little changed. Indices from China traded mixed
• Chinese real estate stocks traded higher today on reports that China prepares a rescue package to bail out property sector
• European index futures trade slightly above last week’s cash closing prices while US index futures trade slightly lower

• Fed’s Waller said that the recent lower-than-expected CPI report was just one data point and the central bank wants to see more data like that before altering policy. Waller said, however, that recent FOMC decision was meant to signal possibility of a 50 bp rate move in December
• US Treasury Secretary Yellen said that price cap on Russian oil will also benefit China, India and all other purchasers as it will give more leverage to negotiate lower prices
• International Monetary Fund said that outlook for the global economy got gloomier on the back of tighter monetary policy, weakening momentum in China as well as energy and food crises stemming from Russia-Ukraine war
• BoJ Governor Kuroda once again said that sharp FX moves are undesirable but also stressed that Japanese financial system remains resilient
• US President Biden and Chinese President Xi are set to meet at G20 summit today. This will be the first in-person meeting of the two since Biden became US President
• Russian President Putin will not attend G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia
• Morgan Stanley expects the global economy to grow 2.2% next year. Bank expects the United States to narrowly avoid recession next year. Morgan Stanley also expects US CPI to drop below 2.0% by the end of next year
• Goldman Sachs sees US core inflation to decelerate to 2.9% by the end of 2023
• Cryptocurrencies traded lower on reports that some of dubious transfers were made out of FTX exchanges and on reports of troubles at more crypto exchanges. Bitcoin trades 3% lower and drops below $16,000 mark
• Energy commodities traded without a common direction with natural gas trading higher and oil price dropping
• Precious metals are pulling back as comments from Fed’s Waller provided a boost for USD
• NZD and JPY are the best performing major currencies while CHF and GBP lagged the most

Recovery rally on GOLD took a pause today as US dollar strengthened on the back of Fed’s Waller comments. Precious metal is pulling back and attempting to make a break below the $1,760 price zone.