Oil is trading more or less flat at the beginning of a new week. Outlook for oil is unclear due and it can change any minute due to numerous factors involved. On one hand, there is a risk that OPEC+ does not have enough spare production capacity to keep boosting supply in-line with its agreement. On the other hand, production in Libya and Kazakhstan has been almost fully restored already. On top of that it should be noted that Iranian nuclear talks are still ongoing. If agreement with Iran is reached and Iranian oil is allowed back into international markets, risk of oversupply would arise that may have a potentially negative impact on prices. Nevertheless, talks with Iran seem to be going nowhere as the country wants the United States to lift economic sanctions before any concessions related to nuclear issues are made.
Speaking of oil, China will host oil ministers from Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait and Bahrain. Talks are expected to center around security of supply amid the situation in Kazakhstan but discussions on the Iran situation as well as Gulf states over-reliance on the United Stated are also expected to be held.
Taking a look at OIL.WTI chart at H4 interval, we can see that the recent upward impulse was halted after price reached 78.6% retracement of the downward move started in October 2021. After a brief pullback, OIL.WTI started to trade sideways near the $79 handle. The near-term resistance to watch is the aforementioned zone ranging below 78.6% retracement ($80.50) while the near-term support can be found at 61.8% retracement ($76.60). A